Some topics get brushed off because they sound boring. Tariffs are one of them. Most people hear about tariffs and assume it’s just another round of political posturing, a trade war with no real consequences for them.
But here’s the thing: Tariffs are not just about trade. They are about money. And money is about power. If you understand what’s happening under the surface, you’ll see why tariffs are not just some policy maneuver—they are setting up Bitcoin’s next explosive move.
If you don’t follow the incentives behind tariffs, you miss the real story.
So, let’s break it down.
Credits go to Jeff Park from Bitwise for this great points about the US tariffs.
The Two Frames You Need to Understand This
To really get what’s happening, you have to frame tariffs in two ways:
- The Triffin Dilemma—A structural flaw in the U.S. dollar system that America is trying to “fix.”
- Trump’s Playbook—Why he’s pushing tariffs and what his real goal is.
If you understand those two points, you’ll see why Bitcoin isn’t just going up—it’s going up faster than anyone expects.
The Triffin Dilemma: The Built-in Flaw of the Dollar
Ever wonder why the U.S. has to run trade deficits? Why every country holds dollars as reserves? Why the U.S. can always borrow at lower interest rates than it probably should?
That’s the Triffin Dilemma.
How It Works
- The World Needs Dollars.
- The U.S. dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning other countries must hold dollars for trade and reserves.
- This creates artificial demand, keeping the dollar structurally overvalued.
- The U.S. Must Run Trade Deficits.
- Because the world needs dollars, the U.S. has to export them.
- The only way to do that? Import more than it exports.
- That’s why the U.S. has persistent trade deficits—it’s not a bug, it’s the system.
- The U.S. Can Borrow Cheaply.
- Because there’s such high demand for dollars and U.S. Treasuries (USTs), the government can borrow money at lower interest rates than it otherwise would be able to.
This creates a weird imbalance: America benefits from cheap borrowing but loses industrial power because of a strong dollar.
And that’s what Trump wants to “fix.”
Why Tariffs Are a Weapon, Not the Endgame
Most people think tariffs are about punishing China or protecting American jobs. That’s the surface-level explanation. The real goal?
A modern-day Plaza Accord—a coordinated effort to weaken the dollar without admitting it.
Here’s how that could play out:
- The U.S. forces other countries to reduce their dollar reserves.
- The U.S. forces them to buy longer-duration Treasuries (locking them into lower yields).
- The U.S. drives the 10-year Treasury yield lower to fix its refinancing problem.
This is statecraft disguised as trade policy.
And it’s necessary because of one person’s interests more than anyone else’s: Donald Trump.
Trump’s Real Play: Lower the 10-Year Yield
Forget trade wars. Forget diplomacy. Forget the rhetoric about jobs.
Trump’s real goal? Get long-term interest rates down.
Why?
- Real estate is rate-sensitive. If the 10-year yield drops, property values skyrocket.
- Trump’s empire is built on real estate. He needs cheap debt and rising values.
- The Federal Reserve’s short-term rate cuts aren’t enough. Trump needs long-term rates lower, too.
- Tariffs weaken the dollar, create pressure, and force bond buying—driving rates down.
This isn’t deep political theory. This is self-interest. Never overcomplicate the motives of a man who operates in the open.
But here’s where it gets really interesting.
The Second-Order Effect: Bitcoin Goes Parabolic
If Trump gets what he wants—a weaker dollar and lower interest rates—here’s what happens next:
- U.S. risk assets (stocks, real estate) explode upwards.
- Foreign currencies get crushed.
- Other countries are forced to debase their currencies to compete.
That last one is everything.
Because in a world where all fiat currencies are racing to the bottom, what do people buy?
Bitcoin.
Here’s the thought process:
- 1970s: People hoarded gold when the system was unstable.
- 2008: People fled to government bonds for safety.
- 2024? We are online and on-chain.
When foreign citizens panic, they won’t just hoard gold. They’ll hoard Bitcoin.
Why This Time Is Different
This isn’t just another round of “Bitcoin number go up.”
This is a structural break in the global financial system.
- The U.S. is deliberately engineering a lower dollar and lower yields.
- Foreign governments have no good response except debasing their own currencies.
- The world has never had a non-sovereign monetary asset as liquid as Bitcoin.
In past crises, capital had no real escape hatch. Today? Capital can move instantly, anywhere in the world, into Bitcoin.
And that’s why Bitcoin doesn’t just go up—it goes up violently.
TL;DR: Tariffs Are Bitcoin’s Rocket Fuel
Most people aren’t seeing this yet.
- Tariffs aren’t just about trade—they are about currency.
- Trump isn’t just fighting China—he’s trying to manipulate the bond market.
- The end result is the same: lower dollar, lower yields, and a rush into Bitcoin.
This isn’t a game. It’s not just another news cycle. It’s the beginning of a fundamental realignment of global finance.
And if you’re not paying attention, you’re going to miss one of the most violent repricings in history.